Những kẻ phản văn minh - Via Minh Đào - Trạm Đọc - Read Station

Những kẻ phản văn minh

Bạn tôi mới mua chiếc Airpod, và vì đây là tai nghe không dây, nên cậu ta và người yêu mình, bây giờ đã được thoải mái ngồi xa nhau, không còn bị vướng víu bởi giới hạn của dây nối, thứ đã từng khiến 'cho anh gần em thêm chút nữa' để nghe nhạc.

Sự bất tiện của dây nối đã được Apple gỡ bỏ, nhưng nó đồng thời cũng loại bỏ một trải nghiệm, tuy bất tiện, nhưng lại rất kiểu "lãng mạn", khi sợi dây tai nghe, vừa là vật giới hạn, vừa là vật gắn kết nối hai người lại.

Nếu bạn là người ám ảnh với năng suất làm việc, thì hẳn viết thư tay là thói quen xứng đáng tuyệt chủng. Bạn phải cất công viết, dán tem, ra bưu điện gửi thư, rồi dành cả vài ngày, thậm chí cả tháng chờ đợi trong hy vọng (nhiều khi còn là trong vô vọng, vì không được hồi âm). Quá nhiều công sức, quá nhiều hoài mong, quá mất thời gian.

Gần đây, cậu bạn khác của tôi mới xin được củ nâu & rủ cả nhóm đi nhuộm vải thử. Mất nguyên buổi sáng để rửa, thái, xay, vắt nước, sau đó tự nhuộm, nhưng cảm giác được cầm một tấm vải, với họa tiết mình tự vẽ, với họ hạnh phúc hơn nhiều là bỏ 100k đặt hàng trên Shopee.

Bất tiện thì có nhưng chính nó lại mang tại một giá trị rất khác lạ.

The Century Club - Chris Mayer

https://www.woodlockhousefamilycapital.com/post/the-century-club?mc_cid=d07adb9fc4&mc_eid=f8fb6e6a50

Companies have lifespans. And they seem to be shortening.

In my book 100 Baggers, I included a couple of tables to show this. Here they are:

Average lifespan by sector:

Now, this is not an exact science and different people will get different estimates. But I think the story here is directionally accurate.

Juxtapose this phenomenon against the median time it took for companies in the study to reach 100-bagger status: 26 years. (The mean was also about 26 years).

So, we see another aspect of the 100-bagger challenge: You need to have a company survive long enough to compound returns into multi-bagger status. What kinds of companies survive? In this post, we’ll take a stab at an answer.

Inspiration comes from a book I read recently: Lessons from Century Club Companies by Vicki TenHaken. (Thanks for the recommendation Ian Cassel! @iancassel). The book focuses on companies that have been around for at least a century.

TenHaken became interested in these companies after hearing a presentation by Makoto Kanda, an economist who studied long-lived Japanese companies. Japan is home to some of the oldest continuously operating firms in the world, with seven founded prior to the year 1000. These are the bristlecone pines of the corporate world.

Fascinated, she turned to see how US companies fared. Corporate lifespans seem to be somewhere around 12 to 15 years. Not many have joined the century club. In the US, there are over 1,000 companies that have survived more than 100 years, a population of less than one-half of one percent of all companies operating today.

So, how did these companies beat the odds?

The Better Letter: Math-Challenged - Bob Seawright

Humans are lousy at math and probability.

Math-Challenged

Math anxiety is real, and it is not altogether misplaced. For example, 40 percent of 12th-grade students tested below even basic mathematics achievement levels in the most recent national survey from the Educational Testing Service. Generally speaking, most of us are “math-challenged” in some significant way. 

We are all prone to innumeracy, which is “the mathematical counterpart of illiteracy,” according to Douglas Hofstadter. It describes “a person’s inability to make sense of the numbers that run their lives.” Math is hard and often counterintuitive.

For example, most people would consider it an unlikely coincidence if any two people would share the same birthday in a room with 23 people in it. People would generally look at it like this: since one would need 366 people (in a non-leap year) in a room to be certain of finding two people with the same birthday, it seems to make sense that there is only a 6.28 percent chance of that happening with only 23 people in a room (23 divided by 366). However, 99 percent probability is actually reached with just 57 people in a room and 50 percent probability exists with only 23 people (see more on the “birthday problem” here).

Interest rates 101: How they influence the market? - financialflagship

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/DJI/BlLg2BvD-Interest-rates-101-How-they-influence-the-market/?&utm_source=Weekly&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=TradingView+Weekly+99+%28EN%29

As individuals, we face decisions every day that implicate saving money for future use or borrowing money for consumption. If we want to make an investment, one important task for us is the analysis of transactions with present and future cash flows. When we place value on any asset, we are trying to determine the worth of a stream of future cash flows.

Money has time value which means that individuals prefer a given sum of money the earlier it is received.

Consider the following exchange: You pay $4,000 today and in return receive $3,500 today. Would you accept this arrangement? Not likely. But what if you received the $3,500 today and paid the $4,000 one year from now? Can these sums be considered comparable? Possibly, because the payment of $4,000 a year from now would probably be worth less to you than a payment of $4,000 today. It would be fair, therefore, to discount the $4,000 collected in one year; that means to cut its value based on the time that passes before the money is paid.

Hạt gạo làng ta - Trần Đăng Khoa (Góc sân và khoảng trời)

Hạt gạo làng ta

Có vị phù sa

Của sông Kinh Thầy

Có hương sen thơm

Trong hồ nước đầy

Có lời mẹ hát

Ngọt bùi đắng cay...

How People Lose All Of Their Money - Wolf Report

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4415658-how-to-avoid-losing-all-your-money

Summary

• One of the most common misconceptions is that once you have money or certain capital, it's difficult to lose it. This is deeply flawed - it's entirely possible.
• Going from million/millions to zero is certainly possible, and there are just as many ways to do so as to go from zero to a million.
• I spend a lot of time researching and looking at both sides of the coin - and in this article, I'm talking about how to avoid losing all your money.

Photo by fizkes/iStock via Getty Images

Peter Bernstein: The Importance of Staying Power

The behavioral side of investing gets a lot of attention while the personal finance side often gets less than it deserves. That’s because how defensive you are with your finances helps determine how aggressive you can be with your portfolio. Put simply, it’s easier to roll with the market’s punches when everything outside your portfolio is in financially sound shape.

Peter Bernstein dwells on the impact of being wrong on investments because the consequences can go beyond losses. The nature of investing guarantees everyone will be wrong sometimes. That means unexpected gains in some cases (being wrong isn’t all bad) and losses in others.

How quickly you can recover from losses will have a big impact on your long-term wealth. There’s an obvious psychological hurdle to recovering from losses but the state of your finances impacts your ability to recover too. Bernstein calls it “staying power.”

In planning portfolio strategies, I have always been obsessed — perhaps too much so in some instances — with a rather negative but overwhelmingly important question: What are the consequences if I am wrong? I should stress that this question need by no means lead to an excessively conservative investment philosophy, for it has led me on a number of occasions to take much bigger risks for a client than a more conventional approach would have suggested as appropriate. But I do believe that no investment decision can be rationally arrived at unless they are a logical part of a strategy based upon the answer to this question.

This question really relates to the whole problem of risk, which is an inescapable component of the investment process. We simply do not know what the future holds. This means that we are perforce going to be wrong a certain amount of the time — but we also never know which decisions it is that will be the incorrect one (we are often right, in fact, for reasons that we never anticipated: is this actually being right or being wrong?). Hence, we must move ahead always on the assumption that the next decision may be the wrong one and with the realization that we must face the consequences if it is.

The consequences of being wrong essentially involve an examination of the opportunities to recoup any losses that may be incurred. And these opportunities will be determined by two different sets of conditions.

The first and most important condition is staying power. An investor who has a substantial income or a significant amount of cash reserves that can sustain him regardless of what happens to his cash reserves can let time work in his favor in recouping losses; the greatest disasters are really limited only to those investors who are forced to liquidate at moments dictated by external events — a loan to be repaid, a job lost, a tax bill not reserved for — rather than at moments dictated by investment considerations only…

The second condition for recouping losses is the nature of the investor’s decision-making ability. Given a reasonable period of time, because markets do fluctuate, it takes an extraordinary series of poor judgments to do a really bad job of investing. You may fail to make a killing or even to run with the fastest crowd, but it is really difficult to lose money at investing if you have the staying power to carry you over the bleak periods.

I make this rather bald statement on the basis of an important fact of arithmetic: you can lose no more than 100% of the money you invest in any one security, but you can make an infinite amount on it. This apparently obvious and superficial statement tells us something that is overwhelming significant for investors: a few good guesses can far outweigh many poor ones…

Thus, the consequences of the inevitable wrong decisions can be kept to a minimum if the investor has the staying power to remain in the game until the next throw of the dice and to avoid involuntary liquidation at the wrong moment. But the consequences can also one minimized if the investor has the time and opportunity to make a few lucky decisions that can readily offset the less fortunate ones.

The greater the staying power, the greater the risks the investors can take to try to find that magic killing.

Every market downturn has its share of casualties due to the combination of investing losses and selling. The voluntary response of panic selling gets warned about incessantly. And rightly so, because it creates the problem of having to buy back into the market. Which often leads to missing out on gains when the market recovers. But the possibility still exists that the mistake of selling can be corrected sooner rather than later.

Forced selling is equally important, if not more so because it can strike at any time if your finances are in poor shape. When you’re draining your portfolio to cover basic needs, it becomes impossible to recover from losses.

A sound base — suitable emergency savings, insurance, debt, and spending habits — provides the best defense against that possibility. In turn, you can be more aggressive in your portfolio.

And, who knows, maybe knowing you’ve got the financial security to withstand drawdowns, may offer the psychological trigger to avoid voluntary panic selling, as well.

Source: Economist on Wall Street

Personal Finance Advice That Changed My Life - Vitaliy Katsenelson

https://contrarianedge.com/personal-finance-advice-that-changed-my-life/

Today I am going to write about a topic I have never written about before: personal finance. I am writing about this not so much for you, faithful reader, as for my kids. My four- and twelve-year-old girls are probably too young for this discussion, but my eighteen-year-old son, Jonah, is right on the cusp of needing to learn about it.

When I got married in 2000, one of the best gifts given to my bride Rachel and me was lunch with my friend Mark Bauer. Mark and I became friends when we studied at the University of Colorado – he was always my dependable study partner. He is ten years older than me, which at the time meant he had double my maturity (I was twenty-eight).

A few months before our wedding Mark, asked if he could have lunch with Rachel and me. At lunch, Mark explained that many marriages come to ruin over money issues.

Mark told us,

"A tool that has been very helpful for me is a family budget. On the surface it sounds easy – you project your “revenue” (for your family that would be your and Rachel’s salaries) and then subtract your expenses, and that gives you your net income. If you have money left over then you have savings, and then you can afford to spend money on whatever your hearts desire."

At that point, I was a bit disappointed in Mark’s wisdom. I was a few months away from completing the CFA designation, and that was on top of my master's degree in finance. The simplicity of his advice was frankly a little insulting to me.

Mark read my unimpressed facial expressions but continued:

"The problem with a normal budget is that though it captures well ongoing daily expenses like a mortgage, the cable bill, groceries, etc., it ignores future expenses. Let’s take your car for example. It’s paid for, which is great. But in five years this car will need to be replaced and “suddenly” you’ll discover that you have a one-time $20,000 expense, which should not be sudden and is actually anything but onetime unless you are planning to drive this car for the rest of your life. But the car is just the beginning – you’ll take vacations, buy furniture, your kids will go to college, and then there’s retirement."

Now this discussion was starting to get more interesting.

Is 100 the New 80?: Centenarians Are Becoming More Common by Katharina Buchholz, Feb 5, 2021

 https://www.statista.com/chart/18826/number-of-hundred-year-olds-centenarians-worldwide/

Living a long life is a common wish of many – and some might just get what they wish for. Life expectancies in developed and developing countries alike have been rising continuously, causing the number of people who live to 100 years to rise also.

This year, the United Nations expect the number of centenarians to rise to approximately 573,000 worldwide.

The U.S. has the highest absolute number of centenarians in the world with [about] 97,000 living in the country. Japan comes second with [about] 79,000 Japanese who are 100 years or older, according to World Atlas. Japan is also where the world’s oldest person lives. Kane Tanaka from the Fukuoka prefecture is 117 years old, making her a so-called supercentenarian, which is a person living to or beyond the age of 110.

The world's oldest man, Saturnino de la Fuente of Spain, is turning 112 years old on Monday. He also hails from a country with a higher-than-average population of centenarian[s]. In France, Spain, and Italy, the share of the population who is over the age of 100 stands at around 0.03 percent - the highest in Europe.

Japan is the country with the highest rate of centenarians, at 6 for every 10,000 people or approximately 0.06 percent. Uruguay, Hong Kong, and Puerto Rico are also home to some of the highest levels of centenarians compared to [the] population with rates between 0.06 and 0.045 percent.

To navigate a Ph.D., recent graduates offer these five key pieces of advice - Abigail M. Brown

https://www.sciencemag.org/careers/2020/09/navigate-phd-recent-graduates-offer-these-five-key-pieces-advice

“Do you have any advice for future graduate students?” I asked. The student had recently defended his Ph.D., and I was conducting an exit interview—something I do with every graduating biomedical Ph.D. student at my university, where I am in charge of evaluating our medical school’s Ph.D. training programs. He sat back in his chair and thought for a minute before responding: He wished he had started to plan for his post-Ph.D. career earlier. My shoulders dropped and I let out a sigh. “Program directors recommend this to incoming students every year, but some don’t seem to hear it,” I said. “How do you think we can get them to listen?” This time, he didn’t hesitate. “They are graduate students in science,” he exclaimed. “Show them the data!”

That was my aha moment. I immediately began to document the responses to this question in subsequent interviews. It has been 3 years now, and the data I’ve collected confirm my suspicions—the same answers come up again and again. As a new cohort of Ph.D. students starts grad school this fall, here are the five pieces of advice graduates offer most frequently.

My midcareer change was scary, but I took a leap of faith - Rachel Mason

https://www.sciencemag.org/careers/2020/10/my-midcareer-change-was-scary-i-took-leap-faith

I spent a lot of Free Solo peeking through my fingers, waiting for disaster to strike. I was on a flight to visit family and had decided to watch the documentary about climber Alex Honnold’s extraordinary, rope-free ascent of the 900-meter sheer cliff face of El Capitan. I have no head for heights, and maneuvering up a rock face is the last thing you’d find me doing. Yet one moment gave me an odd jolt of recognition. In it, Honnold has to let go of one set of handholds, step out over the void, and land on the next hold—just knowing that it will work out. It’s a true leap of faith that made me think of the step into the unknown I had just made in my own career.

Overworking tanked my health—until I began to prioritize work-life balance - Ryoichi Fujiwara

https://www.sciencemag.org/careers/2021/02/overworking-tanked-my-health-until-i-began-prioritize-work-life-balance

“Enjoy your life,” the doctor told me. “Don’t worry about work.” I had recently moved to Germany for a visiting scholar position and was hoping to get a refill of my prescription sleep aids, which I had been taking for more than a year. The doctor spent nearly an hour with me, listening to my story. Then, to my surprise, he said he wasn’t going to refill my prescription. Instead of relying on pills, he said, I needed to rethink my approach to life and work. I felt I was losing my life support—but I would soon learn that he was right.

The Three Best Things to Have before Starting to Invest - Dick Davis

Excerpt from "The Dick Davis Dividend: Straight Talk on Making Money from 40 Years on Wall Street"

If each of us left our money invested for one hundred years, we get the full benefit of the market’s long-term upward bias. But we invest for only a fraction of that time and the market's upward bias is beset with numerous interruptions. So it helps to have some other things going for us. The three at the top of my list would be luck, longevity, and deep pockets, all of which have little to do with the stock market per se. While luck, longevity, and deep pockets are not absolute requisites for successful investing, there’s no denying that having any one of these attributes gives the investor a distinct advantage.

=============================================

Luck

=============================================

Obviously, it helps to be lucky in every field of endeavor. What’s not appreciated is just how large a role [that] luck, both good and bad, plays in the stock market. Investors are advised to do their homework, to diversify, to allocate, to be patient, to be disciplined—but the best thing is to be lucky. You can be successful without luck, but there are times when you can do all the right things and it won’t matter much unless you’re also lucky.

For example, Mr. Jones’s retirement date was January 1, 2000, so he sold his long-held growth stocks a few weeks before that. Ms. Smith’s retirement date was October 1, 2002, so she sold her stocks a few weeks before that. Mr. Jones’s target date coincided with the peak of the bull market, Ms. Smith’s with the bottom of a steep bear market. There was a sharp difference in payout for only one reason—luck, pure luck. Where the market happens to be when, for example, your kids reach college age and you have to sell at least some stock, is strictly a matter of chance. Much of the gain that has accumulated slowly over the years can dissipate if you are unlucky and forced to sell when the market is depressed.

How To Compound Wealth - Bogumil Baranowski

 https://seekingalpha.com/article/4209572-how-to-compound-wealth

Summary

• Learn to be patient.
• Start immediately.
• Earn, save, invest.
• The first $100,000 is the hardest.
• Never lose money.

If we can only shift our mindset from getting rich overnight to compounding wealth over a lifetime, everything changes and our odds of success dramatically rise…

Learn to be patient

I recently had the opportunity to spend a few nights among the California redwoods - those giant trees from the sequoia family. More than a decade ago, on my first big trip when I moved to the States, I visited Sequoia National Forest. The recent visit was a great opportunity to reacquaint myself with these magical, magnificent trees that dwarf regular pines. As you can imagine, it takes ages to grow this tall; the lifespan of these conifers is counted in the thousands of years. John Steinbeck called them “ambassadors from another time,” and wrote that “the feeling they produce is not transferable. From them comes silence and awe.” I couldn’t agree more.

After I returned to New York, I decided to get some seeds of those magnificent trees and watch them grow in a small pot. Though I planted them promptly, the seedlings have yet to appear. Nevertheless, I await them patiently. They remind me of how, as a child, I used to plant pines, birches, oaks, and maple trees with my parents. There is no better way to learn patience than by planting a tree, and there may be no better tree to teach you patience than one of the oldest, longest-living tree species in the world.

Whether you are starting out with $1 or taking on the challenge of managing newly acquired or inherited wealth, there is nothing more important in compounding wealth than patience.

Wolf Report: Make Goals - And Celebrate Investment Achievements

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4413082-make-goals-and-celebrate-investment-achievements

Summary

• The life of an investor is not an easy one. You need to keep up to date on news, happenings, your portfolio, strategy, income, and future. It is, however, rewarding.
• I believe it's crucial for anyone working in a difficult career or field to stay motivated. Create goals - short-term, medium-term, and long-term.
• Reaching goals should be celebrated, and it's something I need to improve at as well. Success should not be glossed over. Celebrate your victories - don't just move on.
• This article is about the importance of grounding and remembering where you come from, as well as where you're going.

Investing For FIRE? Dividend Growth Is The Way To Go - Cashflow Capitalist

 https://seekingalpha.com/article/4412804-investing-for-financial-independence-dividend-growth

Summary

• There are two primary styles of investing that attract Millennials to the stock market.
• One of these investing styles is FIRE, an acronym that stands for "Financial Independence, Retire Early."
• I present the case to my fellow Millennials that dividend growth investing is the best way to invest for FIRE.

Attention, Fellow Millennials!

There are two primary investing styles that attract my fellow Millennials into the stock market: (1) narrative-based momentum investing, and (2) the FIRE movement.

Narrative-based investing is partially what has driven the surging stock prices of popular, cutting-edge tech names like Apple (AAPL), Tesla (TSLA), Amazon (AMZN), Google/Alphabet (GOOGL), Facebook (FB), Twitter (TWTR), Snapchat (SNAP), Bitcoin, and ARK Innovation (ARKK). It's the narrative that fuels these soaring stocks.

Millennials like to invest in the brands they know and admire. It just seems to make sense that if you use the products all the time, then the stock must be a good investment. And what kind of product doesn't Apple make nowadays? Apple iPhone. Apple Watch. Apple Pencil. Apple TV. Apple Refrigerator. (Okay, that last one doesn't exist, but the fact that you just Google searched it should tell you something.)

The motivation behind narrative-based investing is twofold: first, to own a piece of cool companies/brands; and two, to get rich relatively quick. Because for as long as many Millennials have paid attention to the stock market, these tech names have only seemed to go up. Hashtag FOMO.